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"What are the luxury trends shaping our times — and our future?" That was the question posed to leaders of the watch and jewelry industry by IPSOS France, an international market research company. The research was conducted on behalf of the Baselworld trade fair, which released the results in September.

The executives identified three periods in the recent history of jewelry. The first was the pre-'80s "Time of Certainty," dominated by a very formal, structured high society. These were people who had money, who wanted jewelry for status symbols and heirlooms, and who were most concerned with the inherent value and the prestige of the items they bought.

The certainty, alas, was not to last. The 1980s and '90s were dubbed the "Time of Euphoria," when a combination of globalization and growth in the stock market led to new personal wealth. But with that wealth came an emphasis on image and on showing off how much money the nouveau riche had made — and suddenly everyone wanted in. Luxury became about feeding the latest trend as compulsive consumption took over; brands were aimed at middle-class shoppers who could now afford to buy and dispose of these luxury items on a whim.

But mass-production of formerly exclusive products led to confusion. What was luxury? Where did the value lie if the products themselves had little inherent value? Was the very term luxury losing relevance?

It was a fitting lead-in to the "Time of Uncertainty," the post-2001 era. Terrorism is only part of the equation; the slumping stock market, unemployment, and disease outbreaks like SARS all play into a state of psychological unease. Consumers now want items that are personally relevant, that invoke safety, security, stability, and that offer a real value rather than just an image. The market has become polarized as those who can afford it buy more expensive, upscale products, while those who can't have cut back on buying anything.

For companies that produce branded jewelry, the answer is to focus on innovative signature designs, higher quality, and prestige through limited offerings. But, the researchers at IPSOS concluded, the advantage lies almost entirely with large, branded companies who have the resources to attract consumers' attention.

"Small jewelry manufacturers are predicted to disappear in the next 10 years," says Valérie Chassé, deputy director of IPSOS. "[But] when [those surveyed] say small jewelry manufacturers, they mean the old, traditional manufacturers who cater to the middle class with traditional access offerings. . . . Consumers are moving away from the non-branded to the branded. But that doesn't mean that new [creative designers] can't establish themselves and survive."

But how long will this trend continue? "[The executives we interviewed] tend to see this as a fundamental trend that will not disappear tomorrow," says Chassé. "It's not just about terrorism; it's about economic uncertainty, unemployment, war. This is here to stay. We also do other trend research, and we have seen this equally in these interviews."

Even if the global economy recovers and the fears about the future subside, the events of recent years have already affected the next generation, the children who will fashion the jewelry of tomorrow. In that sense, maybe the best way to predict the future is to look at the issues of today.
— Morgan Beard

January/February 2004 • Style: Winner's Circle • Style: Shapes of Things to Come • Selling: Counting Change • Sources: Book Highlights - Tanzanite: Purple Majesty • Bonus: Future Industrial Trends • News & Updates • In This Issue

• Main Article: Shapes of Things to Come

• Online Bonus: Trends for the Industrial Future